Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 8.422703 9.936135 11.604776 13.575704 15.834454 18.336385 21.311500
2024-12-29 6.081083 8.016531 10.357825 13.376663 17.141591 21.655981 27.449581
2025-01-05 4.484366 6.505668 9.151391 12.820710 17.722575 23.983330 32.511669
2025-01-12 3.584570 5.648787 8.538716 12.799047 18.821511 26.916458 38.479636
2025-01-19 2.933086 4.981860 8.028388 12.767943 19.804864 29.685878 44.378649
2025-01-26 2.618838 4.744580 8.072224 13.488724 21.864853 34.055277 52.782394
2025-02-02 2.333054 4.491312 8.035619 14.050203 23.702294 38.210451 61.156216
2025-02-09 2.112795 4.303415 8.063261 14.690517 25.687205 42.700061 70.310573
2025-02-16 1.820540 3.931629 7.723273 14.669727 26.590506 45.571652 77.174494
2025-02-23 1.515100 3.476560 7.167614 14.200280 26.684254 47.140757 82.072891
2025-03-02 1.249415 3.047698 6.593073 13.615084 26.499484 48.207823 86.192052
2025-03-09 1.094868 2.819960 6.363606 13.623498 27.330774 50.983144 93.237124
2025-03-16 0.949260 2.588533 6.102908 13.558031 28.051079 53.671658 100.409632
2025-03-23 0.829367 2.392503 5.886564 13.552656 28.879257 56.604806 108.194859
2025-03-30 0.688475 2.114385 5.451861 13.048697 28.704051 57.733502 112.904287
2025-04-06 0.604180 1.961517 5.269718 13.044880 29.492218 60.643576 120.923741
2025-04-13 0.530120 1.819124 5.089014 13.018897 30.225198 63.487834 128.977535
2025-04-20 0.507643 1.817816 5.244416 13.753894 32.573844 69.516846 143.196141
2025-04-27 0.477722 1.788181 5.325294 14.325615 34.622556 75.088228 156.851510
2025-05-04 0.453672 1.771465 5.436171 14.977091 36.888564 81.209007 171.849832
2025-05-11 0.402483 1.656133 5.272908 14.956006 37.690987 84.486848 181.591839
2025-05-18 0.340403 1.487809 4.939765 14.478531 37.437478 85.624386 187.245226
2025-05-25 0.283417 1.320190 4.578907 13.883264 36.856123 86.040923 191.483371